USDA increases outlook for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biodiesel

By Erin Voegele | February 09, 2021

The USDA has increased its forecast for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biodiesel in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 9. The outlook for soybean exports was also increased, with ending stocks lowered.

The USDA now predicts soybean exports at 2.25 billion bushels for 2020-’21, up 20 million bushels when compared to the January WASDE. The increase reflects record marketing-year exports through January and a slow start to Brazil’s export season resulting from harvest delays. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are reduced 20 million bushels to 120 million. If realized, soybean ending stocks would be down 77 percent from 2019-’20, and the lowest since 2013-’14.

An estimated 8.3 billion pounds of soybean oil is expected to go to U.S. biodiesel production in 2020-’21, up from the estimate of 8.2 billion pounds made in the January WASDE. Approximately 7.858 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biodiesel production in 2019-’20, up slightly from 7.863 billion pounds in 2018-’19.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2020-’21 is forecast at $11.15 bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $400 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is raised 1.5 cents to 40 cents per pound.

Global 2020-’21 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher exports and lower ending stocks. Global exports are raised 600,000 tons to 169.7 million on higher exports from the U.S. and Russia. Higher imports for Argentina are partially offset by reductions for the EU-27+U.K., Canada and Bangladesh. Global soybean stocks are reduced 1 million tons to 83.4 million as lower stocks in the U.S. and Brazil more than offset higher stocks in Argentina.

 

 
 
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