USDA maintains outlook for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biodiesel

By Erin Voegele | March 09, 2021

The USDA maintained its 2020-’21 forecast for soybean oil use in biodiesel in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released March 9. U.S. soybean supply and use projections were also mostly unchanged.

The 2020-’21 soybean crush is expected at 2.2 billion bushels, with exports forecast at 2.25 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is expected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from the February WASDE. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400 per ton, with the price for soybean oil forecast at 41 cents per pound, up 1 cent per pound when compared to last month.

An estimated 8.3 billion pounds of soybean oil expected to go to biodiesel production in 2020-’21, a forecast that was maintained from last month’s outlook. Approximately 7.858 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biodiesel production in 2019-’20, down slightly from 7.863 billion pounds in 2018-’19.

Globally, soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to 134 million, reflecting a revision to the 2019-‘20 crop and this season’s expected yield trend. India’s soybean production is raised 200,000 tons to 10.7 million based on updated government area data. Conversely, Argentina’s soybean production is reduced 500,000 tons to 47.5 million due to dry weather conditions over the past month.

Global soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 million tons to 323.6 million as higher crush for Argentina and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China. Higher crush in Argentina results in higher meal and oil exports. Soybean crush for China is lowered 1 million tons to 98 million based on data to date. Global soybean stocks are slightly higher, with increased stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.


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