The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that biodiesel production will increase by 10 percent in 2022 following a slight decline in 2021. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to be up in both years.

According to the EIA, U.S. biodiesel production increased by approximately 5 percent from 2019 to 2020, averaging an estimated 118,000 barrels per day last year. The agency expects biodiesel to fall slightly to 117,000 barrels per day this year, before increasing by 10 percent to 129,000 barrels per day in 2022. The EIA said the projected increase is driven primarily by biodiesel’s role in meeting multiple Renewable Fuel Standard targets and the existence of the biodiesel production tax credit through 2022. The EIA also noted that despite renewable identification number (RIN) prices that have recently been at all-time highs, record-high feedstock costs are expected to limit biodiesel production growth over the forecast period.

Net imports of biomass-based diesel increased by approximately 6 percent last year, reaching 22,000 barrels per day. The EIA currently expects net imports to increase to an average of 29,000 barrels per day in 2021 and 44,000 barrels per day in 2022. The increase primarily reflects increased volumes of renewable diesel imported to meet RFS targets and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard.