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Global diesel engine sales forecast to rise 7.7 percent a year

By The Freedonia Group Inc. | April 29, 2014

Global diesel engine sales are forecast to rise 7.7 percent per year through 2017 to $248.5 billion, representing a marked acceleration from the 2007-‘12 pace. Higher production of medium and heavy trucks and buses and of off-highway machinery will combine with a rebound in light vehicle output in western Europe and the growing popularity of diesel cars in a number of nations, most notably the U.S. and India, to generate increased engine demand. These and other trends are presented in “World Diesel Engines,” a new study from The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland, Ohio-based market research firm.

According to analyst Matthew Raskind, “In 2012, the Asia/Pacific region was the largest user of diesel engines by a wide margin. This is due primarily to the massive Chinese, Indian and Japanese markets, which represent three of the five largest national buyers of diesel engines on a global scale.” China and India will also be among the fastest expanding national markets through 2017, spurred by rapidly climbing production of diesel-powered motor vehicles and off-highway machinery. Regional sales gains will be restrained to some degree by a sharp deceleration in the Japanese market, reflecting a drop in motor vehicle output as locally based automakers continue to boost manufacturing capacity overseas.

Demand for diesel engines will rebound in western Europe, supported by a recovery in the area’s economy following the debt-related recessions experienced in a number of nations in 2012. Diesel light vehicles made in western Europe are considered to be the gold standard for diesel passenger cars, and an upturn in vehicle sales in the region, the growing popularity of these cars in the U.S., and rising incomes in several large developing countries will boost production levels. North America will also see an increase in diesel engine sales growth through 2017. Value gains in North America will be concentrated in the large medium/heavy vehicle and off-highway and other mobile machinery markets, and will be supported by improved economic conditions and greater investment in construction and mining projects around the world.

                                                                                                                                            

WORLD DIESEL ENGINE DEMAND

(billion dollars)

 

% Annual Growth

Item     

2007

2012

2017

2007-

2012

2012-

2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

Diesel Engine Demand

141.7

171.5

248.5

3.9

7.7

North America

18.6

23.2

32.3

4.5

6.9

Western Europe

54.8

43.3

57.2

-4.6

5.7

Asia/Pacific

43.6

74.3

113.5

11.3

8.8

Central & South America

7.1

9.4

14.2

5.9

8.6

Eastern Europe

11.5

13.2

18.7

2.8

7.2

Africa/Mideast

6.3

8.2

12.7

5.5

9.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 486-page report, “World Diesel Engines,” published in this April, is available for $6,200 from The Freedonia Group Inc.

 

 

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