Crop update: Fewer soybeans from Argentina?
The 2015-’16 South American soybean production could be much smaller than has long been expected because of weather-induced losses in Argentina. In Brazil, harvest figures more or less match forecasts as the harvest is coming to a close.
Several days of heavy rain in Argentina might result in harvest losses of up to 3 million tons, in addition to reducing soybean quality. USDA has recently put the 2015-’16 Argentinian soybean production at 59 million tons, down approximately 2 million tons from 2014-’15.
Brazil is expected to produce a record crop of 100 million tons. Almost 90 percent of its soybean area has been harvested. The Brazilian crop compares to the (narrow) U.S. record of 107 million tons in the autumn of 2015, diminishing the gap between the two countries.
According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), preliminary estimates for the upcoming year 2016-’17 indicate another large soybean output from the U.S. In other words, as matters stand, the U.S. soybean area for the 2016 harvest will fall just short of the previous year’s record.
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