USDA maintains 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel

By Erin Voegele | October 12, 2021

The USDA maintained its 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 12. The agency’s estimate for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biofuel was also maintained.

The USDA’s 2021-’22 production forecast for soybeans is at 4.4 billion bushels, up 74 million on higher yields. Harvested areas is unchanged at 86.4 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 51.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the September WASDE. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska.

Soybean supplies for 2021-’22 are projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks. With higher crush and unchanged exports, 2021-’22 ending stocks are projected at 320 million bushels, up 135 million from last month.

The USDA currently predicts 11 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2021-’22, a forecast maintained from the September WASDE. An estimated 8.8 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2020-’21, up from 8.658 billion pounds in 2019-’20.

The season-average soybean price for 2021-’22 is forecast at $12.35 per bushels, down 55 cents reflecting larger supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325 per short ton, down $35. The soybean oil price is forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.

Globally, soybean production is lowered for Argentina, India, and the EU. Argentina’s production is lowered 1 million tons to 51.0 million on lower harvested area. Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2021-‘22 include higher beginning stocks, lower crush, and higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect increases for the U.S., Argentina, and China. Argentina’s beginning stocks are raised on a downward revision to 2020-‘21 crush. The 20210-‘22 crush for Argentina is also lowered, leading to lower exports of meal and oil. China’s 2020-‘21 crush is lowered 1 million tons to 93 million based on end of year data. Global soybean ending stocks for 2021-‘22 are increased 5.7 million tons to 104.6 million, with higher stocks for the U.S., Argentina, and China.


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