April 28, 2015
BY Jason Sagebiel, FCStone
Markets have been under pressure amidst planting progress, bird flu and overall comfortable feeling with domestic and global corn stocks. The USDA increased corn carry-out in the April report by 50 million bushels. This was a result of a 50 million bushel decrease in corn used in the feed/residual sectors. Market participants expected to see a larger decrease to corn in this sector after the March stocks report indicated bigger stocks.
Corn for feed demand is projected at 5.250 billion bushels compared to 5.300 billion bushels previously and 5.036 billion bushels a year ago. Traders will expect to see further declines in this sector for feed demand. Overall, corn carry-out was projected at 1.827 billion bushels, up from the previous estimates; however, well above last year’s 1.232 billion bushels.
Milo has peaked market interest this year. Milo exports are projected at 350 million bushel compared to 212 million bushels a year ago. Consequently milo demand into feed decreased by 25 million bushels compared to the previous projections. This indicates that a strong milo export program has priced itself out of current feed rations.
Globally corn stocks increased and are at comfortable levels amidst a slowing world economy. World stocks projected at 188.46 million metric tons vs. 170.84 million metric tons last year and 135.43 in 2012/’13. This growth in corn stocks has eased concerns and that is exhibited in how the managed money has them positioned currently. The managed money has them in a short position not last seen since the fall of 2013. For any upward momentum the marketplace will need a newsworthy event or major weather headline to buoy prices.
July futures |
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Date |
High |
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Low
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April 24, 2015
3.77 1/4
3.69 1/2
3.69 3/4
March 24, 2015
4.01 3/4
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3.96
4.01 1/4
April 24, 2014
5.13 1/2
5.05 1/2
5.07 1/4
Note: Comments in this column are market commentary and are not to be construed as market advice.
The USDA significantly increased its estimate for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 11. The outlook for soybean production was revised down.
U.S. fuel ethanol capacity fell slightly in April, while biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity held steady, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on June 30. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to the previous month.
The U.S. EPA on July 8 hosted virtual public hearing to gather input on the agency’s recently released proposed rule to set 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs. Members of the biofuel industry were among those to offer testimony during the event.
The U.S. exported 31,160.5 metric tons of biodiesel and biodiesel blends of B30 and greater in May, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on July 3. Biodiesel imports were 2,226.2 metric tons for the month.
The USDA’s Risk Management Agency is implementing multiple changes to the Camelina pilot insurance program for the 2026 and succeeding crop years. The changes will expand coverage options and provide greater flexibility for producers.