FILE PHOTO
November 23, 2015
BY Rick Kment, DTN
Early November proved to be a trial for ethanol markets, which eroded 10 cents per gallon through the first two weeks of the month. Ethanol followed strong declines in both corn prices and RBOB gasoline markets during the same time period.
This year's seasonal pullback in gasoline demand occurred while overall supplies of crude oil continued to grow, thus putting additional focus on price levels through the month of November. This dip in prices may serve as a short-term seasonal low and establishes the lower end of the price range at $1.44 per gallon.
December corn futures contract prices, which continued to hover at $3.63 per bushel at the time of this writing, may draw additional buyer support through early December, although traders are focused on the potential rebound in RBOB gasoline prices surrounding increased holiday demand.
Regional Gasoline Prices ($/gallon) |
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Front Month Futures Price (RBOB) $1.2888 |
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REGION |
SPOT |
RACK |
|
West Coast |
1.310 |
1.685 |
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Midwest
1.060
1.572
East Coast
1.332
1.636
Regional Ethanol Prices ($/gallon) |
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Front Month Futures Price (RBOB) $1.5010 |
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REGION |
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SPOT
RACK
West Coast
1.580
1.750
Midwest
1.500
1.695
East Coast
1.570
1.885
The U.S. exported 31,160.5 metric tons of biodiesel and biodiesel blends of B30 and greater in May, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on July 3. Biodiesel imports were 2,226.2 metric tons for the month.
CARB on June 27 announced amendments to the state’s LCFS regulations will take effect beginning on July 1. The amended regulations were approved by the agency in November 2024, but implementation was delayed due to regulatory clarity issues.
Legislation introduced in the California Senate on June 23 aims to cap the price of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits as part of a larger effort to overhaul the state’s fuel regulations and mitigate rising gas prices.
The government of Brazil on June 25 announced it will increase the mandatory blend of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the mandatory blend of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, effective Aug. 1.
The U.S. EIA reduced its 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for a category of biofuels that includes SAF in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was also revised down.