The idea of a forward-looking statement has been put to good use by oil giant BP. The company has released a global energy outlook through the year 2030. In 1956, BP first started using statistical data to analyze global energy needs. Typically, the energy outlook document that provides BP’s perspective and projections on global energy has been used only internally.”However,” Bob Dudley, group chief executive for BP notes in his opening statement explaining the 80-page document, “we feel it is part of our responsibility as a company to make important information and analysis available for public debate,” adding, “all the more so if the issue at hand is as vital to all of us as is energy; its relation to economic development on one side, and to climate change on the other.”

While Dudley explained in the outlook that statistical analysis and numbers are important in sharpening the company’s thinking, “The precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy.”

The outlook highlights several important themes, including emerging energy patterns that show OPEC’s share in global oil production will increase by 46 percent by 2030 (a share not rivaled since 1977), and unsurprisingly, China will be the world’s largest oil consumer, according to the report. Biofuels, the outlook said, will account for 9 percent of global transport fuels used by 2030, and the contribution of renewable to energy growth between now and 2030 will increase from 5 percent to 18 percent. Biofuels, mainly from ethanol, will exceed 6.5 million barrels a day by 2030, according the report. And, by 2030, global primary energy use will grow by approximately 1.7 percent, which, according to the report, is not much more than the previous two decades. However, after 2020 it states that 40 percent of global liquids demand growth will be reached by biofuels and 10 years after that, the number will approach 60 percent.

The two primary drivers for energy consumption are population and income growth. “Over the last 20 years,” the outlook said, “world population has increased by 1.6 billion people, and it is projected to rise by 1.4 billion over the next 20 years. As for income growth, “The world’s real income has risen by 87 percent over the past 20 years and it is likely to rise by 100 percent over the next 20 years.”

The outlook said biofuels will grow at a rate of 8.2 percent by 2030, while gas usage will grow only at 2.1 percent. For oil usage, Iraq and OPEC will continue to be a gray area that will muddle the energy landscape of the future. By 2030, the outlook expects Iraq to account for 20 percent of global supply and based on contracts signed since mid 2009, it is possible that Iraq could produce roughly 12 Mb/d by 2020. Due to issues of security and political imbalance, however, BP expects that Iraq will only produce 4.5 Mb/d by 2020. To view the report in its entirety, click here.