The end of October offered some volatility to the corn complex while following the bullish soy complex. The corn rally sparked on Oct. 23 with nearby futures trading higher for six days to top out at $2.51, as fund-buying pushed the market higher. In addition, the demand-driven market helped the market work higher, as U.S. exports are running ahead of last year's pace. For the week ending October 30, year-to-date corn exports were placed at 691.8 million bushels versus 525.9 million bushels the same period a year ago. The major unknown in the market will be China and its export scenario. In October, the USDA left China's corn exports unchanged at 8.5 million metric tons. This figure is 6.0 million metric tons below last year's export figure. China rumors continue to be present in the market. Questions of how much, if any, exports China will be a part of and how much export business will come to the U.S., will continue to linger in the futures market until a more definite answer is discovered.

Traders received the crop production report from the USDA on Nov. 12. Private analysts will be looking for the USDA to increase production by 150 to 200 million bushels. This would place the U.S. corn production between 10.357 and 10.407 billion bushels. One big question remains: What will the USDA do to the U.S. corn export figure? Currently the U.S. corn export figure for 2003-'04 rests at 1.80 billion bushels. However, the pace is moving ahead of schedule. Not only are exports a critical demand issue but ethanol corn usage is as well. With ethanol production continuing to make records each month, what impact will this make on U.S. corn demand? The monthly average corn demand for ethanol right now is 85.9 million bushels compared to 62.8 million bushels monthly in last year's calendar year. If this pace remains at a constant, yearly calendar ethanol corn consumption should exceed 1.020 billion bushels by year's end. As new plants begin, the end is definitely not in sight. This number is bound to make leaps for the upcoming years. EP