Web exclusive posted Dec. 9, 2008 at 11:52 a.m. CST

With world population expected to increase by one-third in the next 30 years, the U.S. agriculture will continue to play a critical role in meeting global needs, said Neilson Conklin, president of the Farm Foundation. However, he added, "U.S. agriculture alone cannot feed a growing world." On Dec. 4, the foundation released a report outlining the major challenges and issues agriculture will confront in providing food, fiber and energy over the next 30 years.

Acknowledging the competing demands for food and energy, the foundation said the report's goal is to motivate a debate about how U.S. agriculture will meet the challenge of the next 30 years. "Today, more than at any other time in recent decades, there is an opportunity," the report said. "Some would term it a ‘generational opportunity' to consider policy more broadly. With new agricultural and energy legislation in place and the election of a new president and Congress, the opportunity exists to review long-term policy priorities and mechanisms."

The Farm Foundation report "The 30-Year Challenge: Agriculture's Strategic Role in Feeding and Fueling a Growing World" was developed with input from a diverse group of agriculture and agribusiness leaders and government agency and academic representatives. The report identified six major challenges that may impact agriculture's ability to provide feed, fiber and energy to a growing world:

• global financial markets and recession;


• global food security;


• global energy security;


• climate change;


• competition for natural resources, and


• global economic development.

While not making specific policy recommendations, the report discusses policy options, a number of which involve biofuels and bioenergy. Agriculture's role in the bioenergy sector needs to be part of a long-term national energy strategy with the goal of balancing sustainability and affordability. Establishing a national strategy might help with resolving the unstable and unpredictable investment environment for research and development. Short-term discussions need to take place on policies such as the ethanol tariff, biofuel tax credits, mandates and waivers.

Public and private decision makers will also be called to address climate change over the next 30 years. Long-term issues include addressing the risk of greater variability in agricultural outputs likely to happen with climate change that will result in more volatile markets. The report raises the question of what role global trade will have in such volatile markets, the option of building a grain reserve to smooth out market swings and the best safety net designs for developing countries. The report discusses other policy debates that need to take place, including a possible greenhouse gas emissions tax, cap-and-trade policies, compensation to landowners for carbon sequestration, and policies to address land use change.

The comprehensive overview of agriculture's policy needs is the most recent paper produced by the Farm Foundation, a 75-year-old "think tank" on agricultural issues. The full report and an executive summary are available on the Farm Foundation Web site, www.farmfoundation.org. The project was directed and led by the Farm Foundation with financial assistance from the Alliance for Abundant Food and Energy, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Corn Growers Association, the National Pork Producers Council and the United Egg Producers.