While global oilseed ending stocks continue to shrink, production is projected to recover from last year's decline in global oilseed production in over a decade, according to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Friday, May 9. The report projects global oilseed ending stocks for 2007-'08 at 56.7 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month's figure. Most of the decrease is due to lower projected soybean stocks in the United States resulting from a 15 million bushel increase in projected exports. Soybean stocks for Brazil and Argentina are projected at a combined 39.8 million tons, down 1.5 million from 2006-'07.
Global oilseed production for 2008-'09 is projected at 423 million tons, up 32.2 million tons from 2007-'08. Oilseed production is projected to recover from the first year-to-year decline in global oilseed production since 1995-'96. U.S. oilseed production gains account for 40 percent of the global increase. Total foreign supplies are projected to increase by 4 percent from 2007-'08.
U.S. oilseed production is expected to be up 16 percent in the 2008-'09 crop year, with USDA projecting 93 million tons. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Peanut production is also projected higher, while production of sunflower seed, canola, and cottonseed are each projected to decline from last year. Soybean production is projected at 3.1 billion bushels, up 520 million bushels from 2007-'08. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.3 billion bushels, up just 3 percent from 2007-'08 despite higher planted area. Most of the production gains are offset by sharply lower beginning stocks.
Soybean crush is projected to increase less than 1 percent to 1.85 billion bushels, reflecting a small increase in domestic soybean meal use and a projected decline in soybean meal exports. Domestic consumption of soybean oil is projected to increase only slightly as higher biodiesel use of soybean oil is mostly offset by a continued decline in food use. Biodiesel production is projected to use 15 percent of total soybean oil production for 2008-'09 compared with 14 percent in 2007-'08. Soybean exports are projected at 1.05 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2007-'08. Ending stocks for 2008-'09 are projected at 185 million bushels, up 40 million from 2007-'08, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a relatively low 6 percent.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2008-'09 is projected at $10.50 to $12 per bushel, compared with $10 per bushel in 2007-'08. Prices are expected to remain firm due to relatively strong corn and soybean oil prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $280 to $340 per short ton, compared with $315 per ton for 2007-'08. Soybean oil prices are projected at 50 to 54 cents per pound compared with 52 cents per pound for 2007-'08.
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