Despite billions of dollars in financing, countless government incentives and a graveyard of failed startups, increased volumes of biobased fuels and biomaterials are expected to flood the marketplace in the next five years, according to a report published by Lux Research titled “Biobased Fuels and Materials Through 2015: Growing Capacity Past a Drop in the Bucket.” The report forecasts that by 2015 global biofuel capacity will grow 7.8 percent annually to 53 billion gallons, while biomaterials are on pace to grow at a 17.7 percent per year clip to reach 8.1 million tons.

Technological advances focused on algae oil and biobutanol development are expected to fuel global growth in biofuels to 78 billion gallons of total capacity while, on the biomaterials side, capacity is anticipated to climb to 10.5 billion tons, with much of the volume expected to come from succinic acid and ammonia producers. Deeper corporate involvement in either industry could fuel massive growth, particularly for biomaterials where it could bring total capacity up to 12.4 million tons by 2015. Biofuel capacity would also benefit from increased corporate investment, and could expand to 65 billion gallons in the next five years, the report states. It also notes that global ethanol capacity will rely heavily on government regulation. A U.S. increase in the national blend limit to 15 percent should open up more demand for the fuel additive by bringing the forecasted capacity to 43 billion gallons by 2015.