A National Renewable Energy Laboratory project aimed at
quantifying the connection between state/local polices and clean energy has
given a preview of a report due out in December. The early conclusions of the
report by the Clean Energy Policy Analyses indicate that, for policy to work to
develop, clean energy initiatives like biomass use, solar or wind power, time
is required. “The longer the policies are in place, the better they appear to
be connected,” according to Elizabeth Doris, senior project leader for state
and local policy at NREL. Doris, who spoke during a webinar titled, “State of
the States: Quantifying the Impact of State Policies in Clean Energy
Development,” said that her project team knew that it takes time get clean
energy industries going. “It actually ends up being one of the biggest findings
of this study,” she said.

To perform the study, CEPA combined a wide range of
policies into a database and analyzed how they were affecting actual clean
energy development. For renewable energy, the study used installed capacity as
a starting point, and then weighed a policy’s effect on the generated renewable
energy given a specific installation. “Two years ago we tested every policy
against every type of renewable energy,” Doris said. “Over time we weren’t able
to get very good results from that because there were so many variables. We’ve
really tried to narrow down which policies target which types of resources. This
year, we only tested policies against resources to which they are typically
targeted at the state level.”

The policies the study used for testing ranged from
energy-efficient resource standards to renewable portfolio standards, or
mandates. Along with the policies, the study incorporated a number of
nonpolicy-related issues that could potentially effect the development of clean
energy. “Policy alone does not explain growth in clean energy development,”
Doris said, “but what we did find is that results got better when we put in
other variables, such as population, price, or the number of years a policy has
been in place. When we incorporate those, we get better results, so we are
trying to find the right mix of policies and other factors.”

In the end, the study was able to estimate the relation
of policy to clean energy development at between 44 and 63 percent accuracy,
Doris said. The study also noted that it is not just an individual policy that
is having an effect, but rather “it’s when state policy makers and decision
makers create an environment for the development of clean energy.” Along with
broad clean energy development created through policy, Doris pointed out that
sometimes the scalability of a policy creates a roadblock for an initiative to
actually work. “A lot of renewable energy polices can apply to all technologies,
but often times are not scaled correctly to do so. So, if you are trying to
promote geothermal (which are often large-scale central generation stations,
she said), you probably won’t get very far with a small rebate.”

While the report points out that ultimately time is
needed to help policies work to create clean energy, Doris said this study will
also get better with more years of data to draw from. “It really opens the door
for policy options including specific policy directions.”