The Way I See It
February 9, 2007
BY Mike Bryan
The long-term viability of E85 has often been debated, even within the ethanol industry. Its growth is slowed by challenges, such as building a refueling infrastructure within the already well-established oil industry. Millions of flexible-fuel vehicles are being powered by 100 percent gasoline because of a lack of refueling capability and consumer awareness. The list of obstacles facing E85 is not a short one, to be sure.
However, there is one inescapable fact. Without the incorporation of flex-fuel vehicles capable of burning a range of ethanol blends, the ethanol industry has a self-imposed market cap of 10 percent of whatever the nation's gasoline use might be at any given time. Minnesota is exploring blends up to 20 percent in conventional vehicles, which may or may not be technically successful. If consumed in a flex-fuel vehicle, it would be a slam dunk. That same 20 percent consumed in a nonflex-fuel vehicle may be problematic as far as the auto industry is concerned.
Critics argue that the mileage of E85 is less than gasoline … and that fact cannot be denied. On the other hand, proponents claim that E85 costs proportionately less than gasoline. So it's a wash, and you still get the environmental benefits of ethanol. While this may be a valid point, it does seem to me that using more E85 because it costs less may not be a sustainable strategy, either environmentally or economically.
A potential solution may lie within the auto industry itself. There have been recent advances in engine designs, such as in the Saab Bio Power car, which allow a flex-fuel engine burning 85 percent ethanol to run as efficiently as an engine burning gasoline. Under this scenario, you could have all of the benefits that E85 brings to the table without the mileage reduction. So, the path forward for the ethanol industry should be to focus on developing a refueling infrastructure, while putting significant pressure—by every means possible—on auto manufacturers to improve their engine designs.
If we are to convince Congress that ethanol can be a viable contributor toward energy security, greenhouse gas reductions and rural economic development, we need to be able to demonstrate that E85 is a real contender in the automotive fuels market. The way to do that is to demonstrate that E85 can be a fully integrated automotive fuel with substantially similar characteristics to gasoline, except that it's clean.
Finally, if the ethanol industry is going to expand into cellulose the way Congress is proposing, then we will need to create a much larger market than the current 10 percent. That being said, the only real alternative is in higher-level blends, and the only real path to higher-level blends is in flex-fuel vehicles.
So perhaps it's time to sit down with the auto industry and have a serious talk about the real potential for E85. In my opinion, the key to success will be the advent of an engine designed to truly be flex-fuel and efficient, and not just a gasoline engine slightly tweaked to burn higher-level ethanol blends and collect federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy credits. Until that happens, E85 is only a Band-Aid on a gaping wound, never to be a contender to compete with emerging hybrid vehicles.
Have a great month!
Mike Bryan
Publisher & CEO
mbryan@bbibiofuels.com
However, there is one inescapable fact. Without the incorporation of flex-fuel vehicles capable of burning a range of ethanol blends, the ethanol industry has a self-imposed market cap of 10 percent of whatever the nation's gasoline use might be at any given time. Minnesota is exploring blends up to 20 percent in conventional vehicles, which may or may not be technically successful. If consumed in a flex-fuel vehicle, it would be a slam dunk. That same 20 percent consumed in a nonflex-fuel vehicle may be problematic as far as the auto industry is concerned.
Critics argue that the mileage of E85 is less than gasoline … and that fact cannot be denied. On the other hand, proponents claim that E85 costs proportionately less than gasoline. So it's a wash, and you still get the environmental benefits of ethanol. While this may be a valid point, it does seem to me that using more E85 because it costs less may not be a sustainable strategy, either environmentally or economically.
A potential solution may lie within the auto industry itself. There have been recent advances in engine designs, such as in the Saab Bio Power car, which allow a flex-fuel engine burning 85 percent ethanol to run as efficiently as an engine burning gasoline. Under this scenario, you could have all of the benefits that E85 brings to the table without the mileage reduction. So, the path forward for the ethanol industry should be to focus on developing a refueling infrastructure, while putting significant pressure—by every means possible—on auto manufacturers to improve their engine designs.
If we are to convince Congress that ethanol can be a viable contributor toward energy security, greenhouse gas reductions and rural economic development, we need to be able to demonstrate that E85 is a real contender in the automotive fuels market. The way to do that is to demonstrate that E85 can be a fully integrated automotive fuel with substantially similar characteristics to gasoline, except that it's clean.
Finally, if the ethanol industry is going to expand into cellulose the way Congress is proposing, then we will need to create a much larger market than the current 10 percent. That being said, the only real alternative is in higher-level blends, and the only real path to higher-level blends is in flex-fuel vehicles.
So perhaps it's time to sit down with the auto industry and have a serious talk about the real potential for E85. In my opinion, the key to success will be the advent of an engine designed to truly be flex-fuel and efficient, and not just a gasoline engine slightly tweaked to burn higher-level ethanol blends and collect federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy credits. Until that happens, E85 is only a Band-Aid on a gaping wound, never to be a contender to compete with emerging hybrid vehicles.
Have a great month!
Mike Bryan
Publisher & CEO
mbryan@bbibiofuels.com
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