USDA adjusts soy prices down in supply-demand report
April 15, 2008
BY Susanne Retka Schill
Web exclusive posted April 16, 2008 at 4:15 p.m. CST
The USDA adjusted its price forecasts downward from the previous month's projections for soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal in the April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $10 to $10.50 per bushel, down 30 cents on the high end of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $315 to $335 per short ton, down $5 on the low end and down $15 on the high end of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 50 to 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents on both ends of the range.
Despite record high soybean prices, exports have remained strong, especially to China, where imports from the United States are likely to exceed the 2004-2005 record. U.S. soybean exports for 2007-2008 are increased 50 million bushels to 1,075 million this month reflecting strong year-to-date shipments. Soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels to a record 1,840 million bushels, mainly on stronger-than-expected soybean meal and oil exports. Seed use is raised to reflect expected plantings for 2008 reported in USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels to 160 million, still down sharply from the record level set in 2006-2007.
Global oilseed production for 2007-2008 is projected at 390.8 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month. Most of the global increases are due to increases for soybeans in Iran, sunflower seed in Turkey, and cottonseed in India. Soybean production estimates for South America are unchanged. Global 2007-2008 oilseed ending stocks are raised 2 million tons to 57.2 million, due mostly to higher soybean stocks in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Brazil's stocks are raised due to lower crush and soybean export prospects. Higher soybean stocks in Argentina reflect reduced crush resulting from lower projected soybean meal exports.
In contrast to soybeans, the USDA raised its projected season average farm price for corn in this month's report. As new crop futures pushed over $6, the WASDE report projected a $4.10 to $4.50 per bushel season average price at the farm, compared to last month's projections of $3.75 to $4.25 per bushel. Record use during the first six months of the 2007-2008 marketing year and prospects for smaller-than-expected production in 2008 are expected to support cash and futures prices near current record levels through the summer.
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