View From the Hill

April 23, 2007

BY Bob Dinneen

The line between perceived expectations and political realities in Washington, D.C., is often a blurry one. Candidates for office quickly learn there are those who seek to set expectations so high that when they are inevitably not met, they are quick to say, "I told you so." How candidates handle the expectation game is often indicative of their ultimate success. The same holds true for the U.S. ethanol industry.

Pundits, armchair analysts and those seeking to undermine the success of our industry have already begun to raise the expectations bar. Our friends at the Heritage Foundation and Cato Institute have already begun to portray ethanol as a failing venture because it is not the panacea to our nation's growing energy crisis. Others are quick to point out that, because it doesn't completely eliminate greenhouse gas emissions or replace every gallon of imported oil, we should abandon the progress we've made and try something new.

Such expectations are unachievable by any one technology—let alone ethanol—yet that won't deter naysayers from planting seeds of doubt about the importance and advantages of ethanol in the minds of average Americans. It is important that we as an industry engage in the expectation game, make clear the benefits of greater ethanol production and use, and champion but not oversell the promise that ethanol holds for the future.

Fortunately, our industry has a good story to tell, one that is buttressed by that pesky requirement of any argument—fact.

In 2006, ethanol was the only renewable fuel that could say it reduced foreign oil imports by more than 200 million barrels, more than was imported from Iraq and nearly half of the annual imports from Venezuela, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As our industry increases production to nearly 7 billion gallons this year, the displacement of foreign oil will continue to grow.

Likewise, ethanol is meeting the increased demand for gasoline around the country. The American Petroleum Institute states that ethanol met all the increased demand for gasoline in 2006. While conservation and greater efficiencies will be required to reduce overall gasoline demand, ethanol is helping to stem the tide today.

Furthermore, ethanol is helping to address one of the most pressing issues facing the world today—climate change. According to Argonne National Laboratory, ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 29 percent compared with a gasoline equivalent. Additionally, Argonne notes that the use of nearly 5 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006 reduced greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of taking 1.21 million cars off American roads.

The ethanol industry today is much like that famous Dutch boy, courageously keeping his finger in the dike. As our industry grows, we will not only be there to help stop the flow but to play a critical role in turning back the tide of growing foreign oil dependence.

The expectation game is a tricky one. The key to winning is expecting a great deal of ourselves, while delivering on the promises we make to others. Ethanol isn't the only answer, but it is a good first step.

Bob Dinneen
President and CEO
Renewable Fuels Association

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