As expected, the USDA raised its feed grain stocks projections in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Oct. 12 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower forecast production.

Corn production is forecast 64 million bushels lower with planted and harvested area lowered 385,000 acres and 452,000 acres, respectively. The national average corn yield forecast is unchanged this month at 148.1 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks for 2011-’12 are raised 208 million bushels from the previous projection based on the Sept.1 stocks estimate. Corn supplies for 2011-’12 are forecast 144 million bushels higher.

Total U.S. corn use for 2011-’12 is projected 50 million bushels lower with reduced exports based, in part, on higher expected Black Sea production and exports increasing competition for U.S. corn. U.S. ending stocks are projected 194 million bushels higher at 866 million. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel lower on both ends of the range to $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel.

Other 2011-’12 feed grain changes this month include a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum exports and a 10-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use. For 2010-’11, corn feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate and other changes to 2010-’11 use and supplies. Sweetener and starch use is lowered 15 million bushels based on reported use for the June-August quarter. Corn imports are lowered 3 million bushels for 2010-’11. Projected ethanol use remains unchanged from the previous month at 5 billion bushels. That’s down from the estimated 5.02 billion for the last marketing year and 4.59 billion used in the 2009-‘10

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-’12 are projected 10.4 million tons higher with more than half of the increase reflecting the 5.3-million-ton increase in U.S. corn beginning stocks. Global corn production is raised 5.4 million tons with foreign production increases more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Production is raised 4.0 million tons for China to a record 182.0 million tons supported by 2011 weather data, information from crop tours, and early forecasts by officials in China. Ukraine corn production is raised 3.0 million tons as summer precipitation and temperature patterns support a sharp year-to-year increase in yield prospects and early harvest results indicate record yields. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Russia but lowered 0.3 million tons for Serbia.

Estimates of China’s 2009-’10 and 2010-’11 corn production are raised 6.0 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively, in line with data from the China National Bureau of Statistics. Based on analysis of summer weather data from China’s northeast corn growing region during the past decade, NBS provincial yield estimates for 2000 through 2008, and the recently released provincial yield estimates for 2010, NBS yields for 2009 are consistent with the historical relationship between yields and reported summer rainfall and temperatures. Summer weather data and the same statistical relationship support this month’s upward revisions to 2010 production. Increases in China corn feed and residual use for 2009-’10, 2010-’11, and 2011-’12 offset this month’s production increases leaving China ending stocks nearly unchanged.

Global coarse grain trade for 2011-’12 is raised slightly driven by increased corn imports by South Korea and higher corn exports from Ukraine and Russia. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.3 million tons for Russia with larger crops expected in both countries. These changes more than offset the reduction projected for U.S. shipments. Global corn ending stocks are projected 5.8 million tons higher for 2011-’12 mostly reflecting the larger U.S. beginning stocks. Despite the increase, 2011-’12 world corn ending stocks would be the smallest since 2006-’07.