WASDE: Soybean stocks decrease

February 11, 2008

BY Susanne Retka Schill

Web exclusive posted March 11, 2008 at 3:47 p.m. CST

Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2007-'08 were reduced 20 million bushels to 140 million bushels in this month's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report released by the USDA on March 11. Due to the lower projected use for biodiesel, domestic soybean oil use was also reduced.

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported reduced biodiesel production from soybean oil for six consecutive months as soybean oil prices have climbed. Projected U.S. soybean oil production increased this month due to a greater oil extraction rate. Soybean exports increased 20 million bushels to 1 billion, reflecting strong sales especially to China, and reduced soybean exports from Brazil, as good crush margins-and strong demand for soybean meal and oil-result in an increase in projected crushing.

The USDA left its projected price range for soybeans unchanged in the monthly supply-demand report, projecting $10 to $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal is projected at $320 to $350 per ton. Soybean oil prices are projected to be 53 to 57 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production estimates were reduced slightly in the USDA projections at 390.1 million tons, down 200,000 tons from last month. Higher sunflower seed and peanut production partially offset lower soybean and rapeseed production. Global soybean production decreased 200,000 tons to 219.8 million. Soybean production in Brazil is projected at a record 61 million tons, up 500,000 tons from last month. Global rapeseed production was reduced 900,000 tons to 47.6 million, mainly due to a lower output in China resulting from lower yields.

In this year's battle for acres, crop watchers are keeping an eye on all crops as each sector attracts more acres. The USDA lowered its projected U.S. wheat ending stocks by 30 million bushels based on higher food use and exports. Raised export projections represented 25 million bushels of that total, based on the pace of export sales and shipments, as well as continued export restrictions by major competitor countries. Despite record prices, export commitments for U.S. wheat continue to accumulate. The USDA raised its monthly projections of world corn supplies for the 2007-'08 crop year by 3.9 million tons and, as a result, left its projected season-average farm prices for corn unchanged at $3.75 to $4.25 per bushel.

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