USDA maintains forecast for 2020-‘21 soybean oil use in biodiesel

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2020-’21 soybean use in biodiesel production its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Sept. 11. Forecasts for soybean production, beginning stocks and ending stocks were lowered.

According to the USDA, lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports and crush for 2019-’20. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 112 million on a lower yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre. Yield is down 1.4 bushels per acre from the August forecast.

With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month.

An estimated 8 billion pounds of soybean oil are expected to go to biodiesel production in 2020-’21, level with last month’s forecast, but up from an estimated 7.75 billion pounds in 2019-’20 and 7.863 billion pounds in 2018-’19.

Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2020-’21. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.25 per bushel, up 90 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up $25. The soybean oil price is 32 cents per pound, up 2 cents

The 2020-’21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports and ending stocks. Soybean production is raised for Brazil, Canada and India and lowered for Ukraine. Brazil’s 2020-’21 soybean crop is raised 2 million tons to 133 million, mainly on increased area as producers face stronger prices and competitive exchange rates ahead of planting. Soybean production forecasts for Canada and India are raised on recent government data and planting progress reports. Ukraine’s soybean production is lowered due to low rainfall throughout August.

Global soybean exports are raised 900,000 tons to 166.3 million, with higher exports for Brazil and lower exports for Ukraine based on available supplies. Crush is reduced for Argentina in line with the prior year’s reduction. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million tons to 93.8 million as lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher foreign stocks, particularly for Argentina and Brazil.