WASDE maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel

By Erin Voegele | July 12, 2021

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on July 12. The expected price of soybean oil was lowered.

Soybean production is projected at 4.4. billion bushels for 2021-’22, unchanged from the June WASDE. Harvested areas, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June Acreage report, is unchanged from last month, but up 4.4. million acres when compared to last year. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 50.8 bushels per acre. According to USDA, soybean supply and use forecasts are unchanged from last month.

The USDA currently predicts 12 billion ponds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production in 2021-’22, a forecast maintained from the June WASDE. Approximately 9.3 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2020-’21, up from 8.658 billion pounds in 2019-’20.

Soybean changes for 2020-’21 include lower imports, crush and exports. With offsetting changes in supply and use, ending stocks are unchanged at 135 million bushels.

The season-average soybean price for 2021-’22 is forecast at $11.05 per bushel, down 20 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $395 per short ton, down $10 from June. The soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents.

The 2021-’22 global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.9 million tons to 94.5 million as higher stocks for Brazil and Argentina are partly offset by lower Chinese stocks. The stocks revisions reflect notable lance sheet changes for Brazil and Argentina in 2020-’21 and China in 2020-’21 and 2021-’22. Exports for Brazil and Argentina for 2020-’21 are reduced as high prices lead to lower shipments to China. China’s imports are reduced 2 million tons to 98 million and 1 million tons to 102 million for 2020-21 and 2021-’22, respectively.


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