USDA lowers forecasts for soybean oil use in biofuel

By Erin Voegele | August 12, 2021

The USDA lowered its 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 12. The estimate for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biofuel was also revised down.

The USDA said the 2021-’22 outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use is for higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush and exports.

Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021-’21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021-’22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields. Harvested areas is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2020-’21 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast, which is reduced in line with the prior year and lower soybean exports. With soybean exports down 20 million bushels on lower supplies, ending stocks are forecast at 155 million bushels, unchanged from the July WASDE.

The USDA now estimates 2020-’21 soybean oil use for biodiesel at 9.1 billion pounds, down from an estimate of 9.3 billion pounds made in the July WASDE. The 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production is now 11.5 billion pounds, down from the July forecast of 12 billion pounds.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021-’21 is forecast at $13.70 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $385 per short ton, down $10. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.

Globally, soybean stocks are raised 1.7 million tons to 96.1 million tons, mainly on higher stocks for China.


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