USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 9. The estimate for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biofuel was revised up.

USDA’s November U.S. soybean outlook for 2021-’22 is for lower production and exports, and higher ending stocks.

Soybean production is forecast at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million on lower yields. Lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas account for most of the change in production.

Exports are reduced this month reflecting reduced global imports and lower-than-expected shipments through October. With use falling more than supply, soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels.

The USDA predicts that 11 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2021-’22, a forecast maintained from last month. The agency, however, increased its estimate for 2020-’21 soybean oil use in biofuel to 8.85 billion pounds, up 50 million pounds from last month. Soybean oil use in biodiesel was at 8.658 billion pounds for 2019-’20.

According to the USDA, the season average soybean price for 2020-’21 is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, down 25 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $325 per short ton and 65 cents per pound, respectively.

Global 2021-’22 soybean production is reduced 1.1 million tons to 384 million as lower production for the U.S. and Argentina is partly offset by higher Indian production. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 49.5 million on a lower harvested area. Production for India is raised 900,000 tons to 11.9 million based on data from the Soybean Processors Association of India.

Global soybean exports are lowered 1 million tons to 172.1 million, with lower exports for Argentina and the U.S. partly offset by higher exports for Brazil and India. With lower exports, China’s imports are reduced 1 million tons to 100 million. Global soybean stocks are reduced 800,000 tons to 103.8 million as lower stocks for Argentina and China are partly offset by higher U.S. stocks.