USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel

The USDA maintained its 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 9. Soybean supply and use projections for 2021-’22 were also unchanged.

Soybean area planted is projected at 87.2 million areas, with 86.4 million acres expected to be harvested. Yield per acre is expected to be 51.2 bushels. Beginning soybean stocks are at 256 million bushels, with production at 4.425 billion bushels. Total use is forecast at 4.356 billion bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel, with the season-average price for soybean oil at 65 cents per pound. All figures were maintained from the November WASDE.

Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate, according to USDA. The agency currently predicts 25.735 billion pounds of soybean oil production for 2021-’22, up from 25.535 billion pounds forecast last month. Soybean oil use in biofuel production in 2021-‘22 is forecast at 11 billion pounds, up from 8.85 billion pounds in 2020-’21 and 8.658 billion pounds in 2019-’21.

The 2021-‘22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected at 627.6 million tons, down 400,000 from last month mainly driven by lower soybean production reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China’s soybean production is down 2.6 million tons to 16.4 million on lower area.

Global oilseed trade for 2021-‘22 is projected at 196.0 million tons, up 500,000 from last month. Increased rapeseed exports for Australia and increased soybean exports for Canada and Ukraine account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 114.1 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month mainly on lower soybean stocks for China.