USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel
The USDA maintained its 2021-’22 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12. Soybean production is expected to be higher, with soybean oil prices unchanged.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.44 million bushels, up 10 million with gains for Iowa and Indiana. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3 million acres, down slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels. Soybean supplies are raised 11 million bushels on higher production and slightly higher beginning stocks. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021-’22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents, reflecting tighter global soybean stocks and lower production forecasts for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. The soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short on, up $45. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.
The 2021-’22 global soybean outlook includes lower production, crush, exports and stocks. Foreign soybean production is lowered 9.5 million tons on reduced crops for Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. Brazil’s soybean crop is lowered 5 million tons to 139 million, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January in southern Brazil. Argentina’s crop is reduced 3 million tons to 46.5 million on both a lower area and yield, resulting in lower crush and exports of meal and oil. Paraguay’s crop is lowered 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million leading to lower exports mainly to neighboring countries. Global soybean stocks are reduced 6.8 million tons to 95.2 million on lower stocks for Brazil and Argentina.
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