USDA lowers forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

By Erin Voegele | September 12, 2022

The USDA reduced both its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production and its estimate for 2021-’22 soybean use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Sept. 12.

The agency said its current 2022-’23 outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use is for higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021-’22.

Soybean production for 2022-’23 is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 600,000 acres when compared to the August WASDE, according to USDA. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35 per bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69 cents per pound, respectively.

The USDA currently predicts that 11.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production in 2022-’23, down 200 million pounds when compared to the 12-billion-pound forecast included in the August WASDE. The agency also reduced its estimate for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 10.2 billion pounds, down from 10.5 billion pounds estimated last month. Approximately 8.92 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2020-’21, up slightly from the estimated 8.85 billion pounds included in the August WASDE.

Globally, soybean production is raised for Ukraine based on higher area. EU soybean imports are lowered on higher supplies of other oilseeds. China soybean imports for 2022-’23 are lowered 1 million tons to 97 million. Global soybean ending stocks, at 98.9 million tons, are down 2.5 million mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks.





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