USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 12. The agency, however, lowered its forecast for U.S. soybean production.

U.S. oilseed production for 2022-’23 is forecast at 126.9 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset with higher forecasts for canola and sunflowerseed.

Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billon bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels.

The USDA maintained its forecast that 11.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2022-’23, up from an estimated 10.2 billion pounds for 2021-’22 and 8.92 billion pounds for 2020-’21.

The U.S. season-average soybean meal price for 2022-’23 is forecast at $14 per bushels, down 35 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69 cents per pound, respectively.

The foreign 2022-‘23 oilseed outlook includes higher production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign production is increased 3.3 million tons to 519.7 million mainly on higher soybean and rapeseed production. Soybean production for Brazil is increased 3 million tons to 152.0 million, reflecting higher area reported by Brazil’s National Supply Co. Rapeseed production for the European Union is increased 1.0 million tons to 19.2 million on higher production for France, Germany, and Poland. Partly offsetting is a 500,000-ton reduction to 19.5 million for Canada’s canola crop on a lower yield.

Global 2022-‘23 soybean exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 168.8 million with higher exports for Argentina and Brazil that are partly offset by lower exports for the U.S. and Paraguay. China’s soybean imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 98.0 million with higher global supplies. Conversely, China’s canola imports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 2.3 million reflecting lower Canadian supplies. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.6 million tons to 100.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil.