USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 8. The U.S. soybean outlook is for lower soybean crush and higher ending stocks.

The 2022-’23 soybean crush is forecast at 2.23 billion bushels, down 15 million from last month on lower domestic soybean meal disappearance and higher soybean meal extraction rate. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 225 million bushels, up 15 million bushels.

The USDA currently expects 11.6 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2022-’23, a forecast maintained from the January WASDE. An estimated 10.348 billion pounds of soybean oil was used to produce biofuel in 2021-‘2022, up from 8.92 billion pounds in 2020-’21.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022-’23 is forecast at $14.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $450 per short ton, up $25. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 68 cents per pound.

Global 2022-’23 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and ending stocks. Global production is reduced 5 million tons to 383 million on lower crops for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s crop is reduced 4.5 million tons to 41 million on lower area and dry weather conditions impacting yield. Ukraine’s crop is down 400,000 tons on lower reported area harvested. Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged, with lower exports for Argentina offset by higher shipments for Paraguay and Brazil. Soybean imports are increased for Argentina while down for the EU. EU imports are reduced on the pace to date and higher imports rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Pakistan’s imports are also down due to restrictions on import licenses of genetically engineered soybeans.

Global oilseed crush is reduced 3.4 million tons, mainly on lower crush for China, Pakistan and Argentina. China’s crush is lowered on slower-than-expected pace to date. Pakistan’s crush is reduced on lower available supplies. Argentina’s crush is lowered leading to reduced soybean meal and oil shipments. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.5 million tons to 102 million, with lower South American stocks partly offset by higher stocks for China.