USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

By Erin Voegele | April 11, 2023

The USDA has maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released April 11. The agency slightly reduced its projected price for soybean oil.

According to the USDA, U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts for 2022-’23 are unchanged relative to last month. The agency also said soybean and soybean meal prices are unchanged. The soybean oil price is currently projected at 64 cents per pound, down 2 cents.

The agency maintained its forecast that 11.6 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2022-’23, up from 10.348 billion pounds in 2021-’22 and 8.92 billion pounds in 2020-’21.

Global 2022-’23 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush and exports. Global soybean production is reduced 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million. Lower crops for Argentina and Uruguay are party offset by higher production for Brazil. Soybean production for Argentina is lowered 6 million tons to 27 million on hot and dry weather conditions through March. Uruguay production is lowered 900,000 tons to 1.2 million on lower harvested area and yield. Partly offsetting is higher production for Brazil, which is increased 1 million tons to 154 million on higher area.

Soybean crush is lowered on reduced supplies and slow pace to date for Argentina, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. Crush for Argentina is reduced 3.3 million tons to 32 million leading to lower product exports. Partly offsetting is higher crush and higher soybean oil and meal exports for Brazil. Soybean exports are lowered 400,000 tons to 168 million mainly on lower exports for Uruguay. Imports are lowered for Bangladesh, Egypt and Pakistan and raised for Argentina. Soybean ending stocks are raised fractionally with higher stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.




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