USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

By Erin Voegele | July 12, 2023

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 12. The outlook for 2023-’24 soybean production was reduced.

The USDA currently projects 2023-’24 soybean production at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels per acre.

With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023-’24 soybean supplies are reduced 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forest.

Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023-’24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price forecast of 60 cents per pound is up 2 cents.

The USDA currently predicts 12.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the June WASDE. An estimated 11.6 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2022-’23, up from 10.348 billion pounds in 2021-’22.

Globally, soybean production is increased for Canada based on the latest plantings report from Statistics Canada. Global soybean trade for 2023-‘24 is down 3.1 million tons to 169.3 million as reduced U.S. exports are paired with lower imports for China, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and Thailand. China’s imports are lowered 1 million tons to 99 million due to higher carryin supplies from increased imports in the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.4 million tons to 121 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.



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