WASDE: Soybean production estimates reduced

Web exclusive posted Nov. 11, 2008 at 3:54 p.m. CST

The November USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate projects the national average soybean yield at 39.3 bushels per acre � producing 2.92 billion bushels of soybeans. That figure is down 17 million bushels from last month's corrected estimates.

The soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 1.74 billion bushels due to lower values for soybean oil and soybean meal. Projections for soy oil use for methyl ester were unchanged from the previous month at 3.1 billion pounds. That compares with the current total of the 2007-'08 marketing year that just closed at an estimated 2.98 billion pounds. Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 205 million bushels.

Price forecasts are also reduced in this month's report, with the USDA projecting the season average soybean price for 2008-'09 at $9.10 to $10.60 per bushel, down 45 cents on both ends of the range reflecting lower cash and futures prices. Soybean oil prices are projected at 37.5 to 41.5 cents per pound, down 6.5 cents on both sides of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2008-'09 is projected at 417.8 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from last month. Foreign production is reduced 0.7 million tons as lower soybean and cottonseed production is only partly offset by higher rapeseed and sunflower seed production. Brazil soybean production is projected at 60 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from the previous forecast due to reduced area and yield. Despite a strengthening U.S. dollar that has mostly offset the effect of declining soybean prices, recent Brazilian government surveys indicate a lower area projection due to higher costs and reduced credit availability.

Global rapeseed production is projected higher mainly due to an increase for China. Recently released government statistics indicate higher rapeseed area, resulting in a 0.5 million ton increase in production to 11.5 million tons. Rapeseed production is projected 0.2 million tons lower for Australia due to lower yields related to excessively dry conditions in some growing areas. Sunflower seed production was raised for both Ukraine and Russia due to higher-than-expected yields. Sunflower seed production was also raised for the European Union. The European Union and China are also projected to have higher soybean production.