Posted November 10, 2009

U.S. soybean producers are looking at record production this year, according to USDA's Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. In spite of difficult weather, soybean yield was projected to come in at a record 43.3 bushels per acre, for a record total production of 3.319 billion bushels.

The larger supply is only partly offset by projected increased exports and unchanged crush estimations, resulting in increased projections for U.S. all-oilseed ending stocks for the current marketing year, 2009-'10, to be 8.8 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month's report. Soybean exports were raised 20 million bushels to 1.325 billion due to the increased supplies and increased global import demand, mainly for China, EU-27 and Russia. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 270 million bushels, up 40 million from last month's report.

USDA pushed its price estimation higher as well for 2009-'10, reflecting higher corn and soybean futures prices in recent weeks. The U.S. season-average soybean price range was projected at $8.20 to $10.20 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price was projected at $250 to $310 per short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range was projected at 33 to 37 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

As soybean production numbers increased, USDA backed off its estimation of the national average corn yield by 1.3 bushels per acre, dropping corn production projections 97 million bushels. The adjustments to supply and demand caused the projected marketing-year farm price for corn to be raised 20 cents per bushel to a range of $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel.

Global oilseed production for 2009-'10 was projected at 428.9 million tons, up 3.6 million from last month. Increased soybean and rapeseed production were only partly offset by lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanut production. Global soybean production was projected higher with increases for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

Brazil soybean production was projected at a record 63 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to an expected increased harvested area. Argentina soybean production was raised 0.5 million tons to 53 million due to increased area as producers shift additional area to soybeans from sunflowerseed. Argentina sunflowerseed production was reduced due to lower planted area resulting from dry conditions during the planting season. Global rapeseed production was projected higher as increased production for EU-27 was only partly offset by a reduction for Canada. Other changes include higher
sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and EU-27, and lower cottonseed production for China.

Global oilseed stocks for 2009-'10 are raised 3.1 million tons to 69.0 million. Increased soybean stocks for Brazil, the United States, and China account for most of the change. Rapeseed stocks for Canada, EU-27, and India were also increased. China soybean imports were raised for 2008-'09 and 2009-'10 to 41.1 million and 40.5 million tons, respectively. Soybean exports for 2009-'10 were raised for Brazil and Argentina. Global vegetable oil stocks were projected 1 million tons higher due to increases in soybean oil stocks for Brazil, China, and India, and increased palm oil stocks for China and Malaysia.