Bigger yields, more corn despite slow harvest

February 9, 2010

BY Jason Sagebiel

Jan. 15—Bigger yields and more corn were harvested this year despite one of the slowest harvests on record, according to the USDA. U.S. corn production shattered records in the January supply/demand with a yield projected at 165.2 bushels per acre, surpassing the 2004 yield of 160.4. In addition, the USDA increased harvested acres from 79.3 to 79.6 million acres which actually surprised traders as corn continued to sit idle in fields still this winter. The combination of increased yields and harvested acres placed production at 13.15 billion bushels. The demand side of the corn table observed an increase of 150 million bushels for corn in feed demand. This could indicate that livestock production has plateaued and is expected to increase slightly. The USDA has left corn demand for ethanol production at 4.2 billion bushels, which accounts for 32 percent of the total demand in 2009-'10. One thing to keep in mind is that distillers grains has to be added back in to a feedstuff supply/demand table as exported or used domestically as livestock fodder. Nonetheless, the USDA is projecting a 1.76 billion bushel carry-out or 13.5 percent carry-out to use ratio. Due to an increase in usage, stocks to use ratio is actually lower this year than in the previous year.

On a global scale, world corn carry-out continues to increase with today's figure at 136.19 million metric tons. Ultimately with a bigger crop observed here in the U.S. and a larger crop expected in Argentina, total production increased. The market will continue to watch South American soy and corn production as well as China soy demand. Weather will be an issue into the spring, with corn yet to harvest and then follow up with field work and planting. This may offer some volatility. With the latest corn production figures, the market may not rely on outside influences as solidly. However, the USDA is planning to resurvey corn and soybean producers in certain states where fall harvest had been delayed. This data will be released in the March USDA report.

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