The race to commercial viability for cellulosic ethanol may be coming to a close, according to a Boston Consulting Group report.

Alternative energy technologies are poised to reshape the energy landscape-with a potential to disrupt the status quo by 2025, according to a report released in November, "What's Next for Alternative Energy." It's a result that admittedly surprised the authors of the report, says Balu Balagopal, a senior partner and managing director for BCG. "The silent revolution is happening," he says.

Authored by Balagopal, Petros Paranikas, partner and managing director, and Justin Rose, principal, the report focuses on six alternative energy technologies for transportation and power generation. Under transportation, the study examined advanced biofuels and electric vehicles. For electric vehicles, it concluded the technology will become economically attractive for lead market segments by 2020. Broad adoption, however, will require lower battery costs, plus slow fleet turnover means it will take a decade before electric vehicle numbers increase materially.

On the other hand, the authors challenge the skeptics who say advanced biofuels will only be viable by 2020 at the earliest. "We believe that their fundamental economic viability will likely be established over the next few years or certainly well before 2020," the report says. "Then the pace of adoption will be influenced primarily by how quickly the infrastructure barriers can be overcome."

Large-scale cellulosic facilities are expected to reach unsubsidized retail-cost parity with gasoline at $3 a gallon between 2012 and 2015. BCG analysis shows the production cost of cellulosic ethanol is at $1.99 a gallon for 2012, dropping to $1.59 a gallon for 2014. "We certainly saw advanced biofuels as something that was definitely going down the cost curve, and while there were many barriers they were surmountable," Balagopal tells EPM. "Lignocellulosic ethanol [in particular] is far closer to cost competitiveness than it is often given credit for."

Biobutanol is also mentioned in the report as having superior properties as a fuel. Algae technologies have long-term promise but are in the very early stages of development, the report says. Sugarcane ethanol is noted as being an exception among first-generation ethanol technology-competitive with gasoline today and reducing carbon emissions by as much as 90 percent.