In what will almost certainly be a reversal of 2007, corn production dropped slightly and soybean production set a U.S. record in 2006, according to year-end statistics released this week by the USDA.
The USDA estimates 2006 corn production at 10.5 billion bushels, which is the third largest on record but still a 5 percent drop from 2005. Yield is estimated at 149.1 bushels per acre, which is the second highest on record behind 2004. More than 70 million acres of corn were planted for grain production in 2006, which is down 6 percent from 2005.
Up from last month's estimates, the projected price range for corn was increased 10 cents on each end of the range to $3 to $3.40 per bushel. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 752 million bushels. Global corn stocks are projected to fall to their lowest level since 1977/'78.
Sorghum, another ethanol feedstock, saw its production drop 29 percent from 2005 levels. Yield also fell 12.3 bushels per acre from 2005.
Corn acres are expected to increase dramatically in 2007, due in large part to the rapid increase in fuel ethanol production capacity. The U.S. ethanol industry currently has capacity to produce roughly 5 billion gallons per year. More than 4.5 billion additional gallons of capacity is under construction or expansion. Current planting estimates forecast an increase in the range of 7 million to 10 million acres. The USDA's annual prospective planting report will be released in late March.
The 2006 U.S. soybean crop was the largest on record despite a 0.3 bushels per acre drop in average yield from 2005. U.S. farmers produced 3.19 billion bushels with an estimated 42.7 bushels per acre average yield. Harvested area is up 5 percent from 2005 to a record 74.6 million acres. Production is actually down 16 million bushels from the USDA's previous estimate. The drop is attributed to the lower yields.
The U.S. season-average soy oil price is forecast at 26.5 to 28.5 cents per pound compared with the 26 to 29 cents per pound estimated last month. Soy meal prices are projected at $170 to $185 per short ton compared to $165 to $190 last month.
U.S. oilseed production is estimated at 96.9 million tons. Meanwhile, global oilseed production for 2006/2007 is projected at a record 395.4 million tons.
Dave Nilles is Online Editor for
Biodiesel Magazine. Reach him at
dnilles@bbibiofuels.com or (701) 373-0636.
Posted: 10:06 a.m. CST Friday, January 12, 2007