Demand questions loom large

November 3, 2008

BY Sean Broderick

Oct. 17—The world changed with the meltdown on Wall Street following the failures of a string of big investment houses. Just as suddenly, worry over a weakening global economy helped slash crude oil prices as fears of faltering fuel demand took center stage at home and abroad.

In that environment, which generated crude futures losses to less than half its summer peak and cut near-month RBOB prices more than 30 percent from mid-September to mid-October, ethanol markets generally put buyers in the driver's seat. Chicago ethanol trading on either side of $1.70 per gallon for near-term deals by late October ran nearly 44 cents cheaper than it left September.

Ethanol blending economics faltered some, but remained well in positive territory. Ethanol production continued expanding to record highs, and there was growing concern that gasoline demand—down by double-digits on a year-on-year basis by some marketer estimates—could weigh on ethanol blending growth. Anecdotal signs included ethanol backing up at some terminals as blending slowed and some credit issues that stunted trading.

The U.S. DOE cut its projected growth for biofuel blending next year, assuming a softer economy. Also, weekly DOE data had conventional gasoline blended with ethanol down 7.6 percent week-to-week, at 3.151 million barrels per day. While still 45 percent more than one year ago, it was the lowest level since late August.

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