EIA maintains 2024, 2025 biodiesel production forecasts, reduces outlook for 2025 renewable diesel production
October 10, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 8. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was revised down.
The EIA currently expects biodiesel production to average 110,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, unchanged from the September STEO. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.
Biodiesel net imports are expected to average 2,000 barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from last month. The EIA, however, reduced its forecast for 2025 biodiesel net imports to zero barrels per day, down from the 1,000 barrels per day forecast last month. Net imports of biodiesel were at 2,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Advertisement
The EIA maintained its forecast that biodiesel consumption will average 120,000 barrels per day this year, but now predicts biodiesel consumption will average 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, up from the September forecast of 90,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel consumption was at 130,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average 210,000 barrels per day in 2024, a forecast maintained from the September STEO. The agency now predicts renewable diesel production will average 230,000 barrels per day next year, down from last month’s forecast of 240,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel production averaged 170,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA maintained its forecast that renewable diesel net import will average 30,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 20,000 barrels per day in 2025. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Advertisement
The EIA also maintained its forecast that renewable diesel consumption will average 240,000 barrels per day in 2024. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was reduced to 250,000 barrels per day, down from the 260,000 barrel per day forecast made in September. Renewable diesel consumption averaged 190,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The outlook for “other biofuel” production was maintained at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 40,000 barrels per day in 2025. Production for “other biofuels,” which is defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other biofuel” are forecast at zero for both 2024 and 2025. Consumption is currently forecast at 20,000 barrels per day this year and 40,000 barrels per day next year. Consumption of “other biofuels” averaged 20,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Related Stories
The U.S. exported 15,050.4 metric tons of biodiesel and biodiesel blends of B30 or greater in March, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on May 6. Biodiesel imports were at 14,991.9 metric tons for the month.
The Canadian International Trade Tribunal on May 5 announced that a preliminary investigation launched earlier this year did not find evidence that imports of U.S. renewable diesel are causing harm to Canada’s domestic renewable diesel industry.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. on May 6 reported improved first quarter EBITDA for its renewable diesel segment on increased utilization of its facilities, particularly the Martinez biorefinery in California, and higher margins.
According to a new economic contribution study released by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association on May 6, Iowa biofuels production has begun to reflect stagnant corn demand throughout the agriculture economy.
SAF production is growing in the U.S. as new capacity comes online. U.S. production of “other biofuels,” the category the U.S. EIA uses to capture SAF data in its reports, approximately doubled from December 2024 to February 2025.
Upcoming Events
