EIA update bioenergy forecasts

November 9, 2021

BY Erin Krueger

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects renewables to account for 20 percent of electricity generation this year, increasing to 22 percent in 2022, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 9.

The electric power sector is expected to generate 27.1 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass this year, including 15.6 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.5 billion kWh from wood biomass. The sector is expected to generate 26.3 billion kWh from biomass next year, including 15.6 billion kWh from waste biomass and 10.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Th sector generated 27.5 billion kWh from biomass last year, including 16.1 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.4 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass is expected to be used to generate 28 billion kWh this year, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 25.3 billion kWh from wood biomass. Those levels of generation are expected to be maintained through 2022. In 2020, biomass generation was at 28.8 billion kWh, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 25.8 billion kWh from wood biomass.

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The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.232 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass in 2021 and 2022, up from 0.238 quad in 2020. The sector is also expected to consume 0.187 quad of wood biomass this year, up from 0.185 quad in 2020. Consumption of wood biomass is expected to fall to 0.175 quad in 2022.

The industrial sector consumed 0.156 quad of waste biomass last year. That level of consumption is expected to remain flat through 2021 and fall to 0.155 quad in 2022. The sector is also expected to consume 1.39 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 1.41 quad in 2022. The sector consumed 1.376 quad of wood biomass in 2020.

The commercial sector is expected to consume 0.035 quad of waste biomass this year and next year, down from 0.036 quad in 2022. The sector is also expected to consume 0.082 quad of wood biomass in 2021 and 2022, down from 0.083 quad in 2020.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.455 quad of wood biomass in both 2021 and 2022, down from 0.458 quad in 2020.

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The electric power sector is expected to have 6,184 gigawatts (GW) of biomass capacity in place by the end of 2021, including 3,822 GW of waste biomass capacity and 2,362 GW of wood biomass capacity. Capacity is expected to increase to 6,190 GW by the end of 2022, including 3,829 GW of waste biomass capacity and 2,362 GW of wood biomass capacity. The sector had 6,295 GW of biomass capacity in place at the end of last year, including 3,790 GW of waste biomass capacity and 2,505 GW of wood biomass capacity.

Across other sectors, biomass capacity is expected to be at 6,289 GW at the end of 2021, including 778 GW of waste biomass capacity and 5,510 GW of wood biomass capacity. Capacity is expected to fall to 6,281 GW by the end of 2022, including 778 GW of waste biomass capacity at 5,503 GW of wood biomass capacity. Biomass capacity was at 6,302 GW at the end of 2020, including 777 GW of waste biomass capacity and 5,525 GW of wood biomass capacity.

 

 

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