EIA updates bioenergy forecasts in May STEO

May 11, 2021

BY Erin Krueger

Renewables are expected to account for 21 percent of U.S. electricity production this year and 22 percent in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 11.  Renewables accounted for 20 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2020.

The electric power sector generated 27.5 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from biomass in 2020, including 16.1 billion kWh from waste biomass and 11.4 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to increase to 31 billion kWh this year, including 17 billion kWh from waste biomass and 14 billion kWh from wood biomass, increasing slightly to 31.4 billion kWh in 2022, including 17.1 billion kWh from waste biomass and 14.3 billion kWh from wood biomass.

Across other sectors, biomass generation was at 28.6 billion kWh in 2020, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 25.8 billion kWh from wood biomass. Biomass generation is expected to fall to 28.2 billion kWh in 2021, including 2.7 billion kWh from waste biomass and 25.5 billion kWh from wood biomass, and be maintained at that level through 2022.

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The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.253 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, up from 0.238 quad in 2020. Consumption is expected to increase slightly to 0.254 quad in 2022. The sector is also expected to consume 0.225 quad of wood biomass in 2021, increasing to 0.231 quad in 2022. The sector’s wood biomass consumption was at 0.185 quad in 2020.

The industrial sector is expected to consume 0.157 quad of waste biomass in both 2021 and 2022, up from 0.156 quad in 2020. The sector is also expected to consume 1.386 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 1.407 quad in 2022. The industrial sector consumed 1.376 quad of wood biomass in 2020.

The commercial sector consumed 0.036 quad of waste biomass in 2020. That level of consumption is expected to remain flat in 2021 and 2022. The sector also consume 0.083 quad of wood biomass in 2020, with consumption expected to fall slightly to 0.082 quad in 2021 and remain at that level through 2022.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.457 quad of wood biomass in 2021 and 2022, down from 0.458 quad in 2020.

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Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption was at 0.43 quad last year. Consumption is expected to increase to 0.446 quad this year and 0.447 quad next year. Wood biomass consumption was at 2.101 quad in 2020 and is expected to reach 2.15 quad in 2021 and increase to 2.177 quad in 2022.

In the electric power sector, total biomass generating capacity was at 6,576 megawatts (MW) at the end of 2020. Capacity is expected to fall to 6,4565 MW in 2021 and rebound slightly to 6,470 MW in 2022. Waste biomass capacity was at 3,865 MW in 2020 and is expected to increase to 3,897 MW in 2021 and 3,902 MW in 2022. Wood biomass capacity was at 2,711 MW in 2020 and is expected to fall to 2,568 MW in 2021 and remain at that level though 2022.

Across other sectors, total biomass capacity was at 6,413 MW in 2020 and is expected to fall to 6,386 MW this year and 6,379 MW next year. Waste biomass capacity was at 798 MW in 2020 and is expected to increase slightly to 799 MW in 2021 and 2022. Wood biomass capacity was at 5,615 MW in 2020 and is expected to fall to 5,587 MW in 2021 and 5,579 MW in 2022.

 

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