To “analyze” the impact of U.S. EPA’s more than a quarter-billion-gallon increase to the 2013 biomass-based diesel mandate under the renewable fuel standard (RFS2) is sort of like a college student analyzing what impact graduating will have on his job opportunities. Graduation for the college student doesn’t happen by surprise; it is not an event that occurs to a person who then must analyze what it might mean. Graduating college is sought out by a student as an end goal—one of many moving targets in life—to which years of hard work are dedicated. Graduation is not a guarantee, either, so the student must remain committed to this pursuit. But for any thinking individual, anticipation of this completion necessitates constant streaming analysis of what it all means.

Since before EPA first proposed its 2013 biodiesel volume requirements at 1.28 billion gallons more than a year ago, Biodiesel Magazine has covered the real issues associated with increasing the federal mandate: feedstock supply and eligibility under the program; improved process techniques to boost production and lower costs; plant business news, including the effects of RIN fraud on production and sales, particularly with small independent producers; the obligated parties’ positions on biodiesel; potential improvements to EPA’s regulations to ensure market integrity, program compliance and a level playing field for all biodiesel producers; and other relevant news and information.

The number “1.28 billion” wasn’t plucked out of the air. In July 2010, a working group was appointed by former National Biodiesel Board chairman Ed Hegland to analyze and assess possible constraints to overall feedstock supply, consumption, industry production capacity and global market conditions to develop recommendations to the EPA regarding future RFS2 volumes. The group also advised NBB on what recommendations it should propose to the EPA. In June 2011, the group made its recommendations to the NBB, outlining a sustained growth of the volume mandate over a five-year period that would start at 1.3 billion gallons in 2013 and increase by 300 million gallons per year, increasing the volume requirement for biomass-diesel to 2.5 billion gallons by 2017. It was also June 2011 when EPA first proposed the 1.28 billion gallons. Here is an excerpt from an article we published last January (“Keeping Pace”):

“Gene Gebolys, CEO of World Energy and chairman of the NBB working group, tells Biodiesel Magazine the committee hired IHS Global Insight to conduct econometric modeling to assess the long-term availability, price structure and market dynamics of a variety of feedstocks in order to determine a sustainable path forward. In the modeling report, the group determined that it’s possible to reach 3.3 billion gallons of biodiesel by 2022, an increase of 2.5 billion gallons from projected 2010-’11 marketing year levels. In this scenario, nearly 80 percent of the increase comes from three feedstocks: soybean oil (31 percent), corn oil (22 percent) and palm fatty acid distillate (26 percent). Animal fats, yellow grease and other low-grade waste oils supply another 16 percent of the total with the remaining 3 percent coming from canola and palm oil.”

Some might call the administration’s biodiesel requirement boost simply election-year politics, while others could think EPA is throwing the biodiesel industry a bone for the agency's blundering of the RIN fraud situation—from the registration process to its buyer-beware stance—but make no mistake: the National Biodiesel Board worked hard for this increase. The association, its members and BBI International’s Biodiesel Magazine have been analyzing the impacts of Friday’s ruling since before its proposal 15 months ago.

It should not be forgotten too that this news is especially impressive because it came out in the midst of reports of leaked draft legislation in Europe to limit use of crop-based biodiesel, and France calling for a global pause on biofuel development because of food price spikes and a bad drought year. Plus, it followed months of pleas to EPA to suspend RFS2 due to economic harm caused by the drought. In addition, the EPA announcement followed news of the USDA’s Sept. 12 soybean report, which was bleaker than expected. As it has done so many times in the past though, this industry faces adversity and emerges stronger than ever.  

So while media outlets on the biodiesel periphery offer their analyses of what impact Friday’s news might have, we here at Biodiesel Magazine say congratulations to the resilient biodiesel industry for a hard-fought victory, and now ask of it, can we responsibly sustain this growth trajectory and push equally hard for 1.6 billion gallons in 2014? My analysis is a resounding “yes.”