Supplies tight, transportation remains slow

February 1, 2006

BY Sean Broderick, Commodity Specialists Company

January 5—DDG prices climbed through December and January, as did most products. The extreme dryness in Texas and Oklahoma brought a sharp increase in demand, and poor run times at Midwestern ethanol plants kept supplies extremely tight. Wet cake production remained strong as natural gas prices stayed firm, and winter cattle demand took all that could be produced, which will probably be the case for the rest of this winter.

Logistics remain a problem, with railcar turn times still not improving. Also, the inability of some suppliers to perform as agreed created several instances of late unit train shipments to California, which ran prices up as locals waited for trucks.

The export market continues to be firm, especially in the containers. The bids for New Orleans gulf barges are not keeping up with domestic strength but will provide a floor if prices ease through the spring. Barge freight is historically high, but given the expensive diesel prices, it is not abnormal. Barge movement for the calendar year should not be radically different from past years.

Going ahead, it looks as though the strong Texas/Oklahoma demand is going to continue through the spring. The high prices of winter are going to pull the typically lower spring numbers up, unless there are some huge surprises in the Southern Hemisphere, or planting intentions. Suppliers are growing, and continued research will be necessary to ensure usage in all feed sectors. EP

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