The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization released its report on the
State of Food and Agriculture for 2008 - Biofuels: prospects, risks and opportunities. The turmoil in financial markets may have eclipsed the food versus fuel debate for a time, but the FAO report will no doubt inform future policy discussions.
The report gives a balanced analysis of the opportunities and risks in biomass energy development. "Biofuels may offer an opportunity for developing countries where 75 percent of the world's poor depend on agriculture for their livelihoods," the report says, "to harness agricultural growth for broader rural development and poverty reduction."
However, biomass will comprise only a small portion of global energy demand, according to the document: "Global primary energy demand is, and will remain, overwhelmingly dominated by fossil fuels – with coal, oil and gas currently accounting for 81 percent of the total. This share is forecast at 82 percent in 2030, with coal increasing its share at the expense of oil. Biomass and waste products currently cover 10 percent of global primary energy demand, a share that is forecast to decline slightly to 9 percent by 2030. By the same year, liquid biofuels are projected to represent the still modest share of 3.0-3.5 percent of global transport energy consumption."
The biomass for energy portion worldwide overwhelmingly goes for residential use, estimated at 80 percent of the total use of biomass. Industrial applications use 18 percent of the total and transport uses just 2 percent. In spite of their limited overall volume, the FAO points out the strongest growth in recent years has been biofuels for transport energy - ethanol and biodiesel.
Is there enough biomass to supply global energy demand? It's been estimated plants collect six or seven times the current global energy demand
- or about 75,000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), or, 3,150 exajoule per year. However, this includes vast amounts of biomass that cannot be harvested. FAO cites the latest study done by the International Energy Agency. The IEA estimates for the year 2050 range from a low of 1,000 Mtoe to an extreme of 26,200 Mtoe. The high figure assumes rapid technological process, but the IEA makes what they consider a more realistic estimate of 6,000 to 12,000 Mtoe. A mid-range estimate of 9,500 Mtoe of harvestable biomass for energy will require about one-fifth of the world's agricultural land to be dedicated to biomass production.
To those familiar with the topic much of the information is not new. However, biomass readers will find details, facts and perspectives of interest tucked into the 138-page report. The recommendations found in the conclusion give a taste of the breadth of the report. Four essential steps are necessary:
- the development of an adequate safety net for the poor who are impacted by increasing food prices
- continued and new investment in agriculture particularly to help developing countries take advantage of increased prices
- continued in-depth studies and information exchange on the challenges posed by biofuels in view of the world's food-security, energy and sustainable development needs
- strengthening the credibility and resilience of the international trade system