USDA predicts 14 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-‘25
May 10, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA currently predicts soybean oil use in biofuel production will increase by 1 billion pounds to 14 billion pounds for 2024-25, according to the agency’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, released May 10.
The overall 2024-’25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and ending stocks compared with 2023-’24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 258 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 85 from 2023-’24.
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U.S. soybean crush for 2024-’25 is projected at 2.43 billion bushels, up 125 million from the 2023-’24 forecast on higher demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. The USDA currently expects 14 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, up from 13 billion pounds estimated for 2023-’24 and 12.491 billion pounds consumed for 2022-’23.
Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 3% from 2023-‘24 on increased pork and poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 17.3 million short tons, indicating a 21% share of global trade, compared to the prior 5-year average of 19%.
U.S. soybean export are forecast at 1.83 billion bushels, up 125 million from 2023-’24 with higher exports this fall due to a lower Brazilian 2024 harvest. With strong seasonal exports after harvest followed by pressure from larger South American production in 2025, the U.S. share of global exports is forecast at 28%, down from the prior 5-year average of 32%.
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U.S. ending stocks for 2024-‘25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 105 million from last year. The 2024-‘25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023-‘24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2023-‘24.
The 2024-‘25 global oilseed outlook shows higher production, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023-‘24. Global production is rising 28.9 million tons to 687.1 million mainly on higher soybean production for South America, the U.S., and South Africa. Brazil’s soybean production is forecast at 169 million tons, up from the revised 2023-‘24 crop of 154 million, which was reduced due to flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina’s soybean output is forecast at 51 million tons for 2024-‘25.
Global soybean exports for 2024-‘25 are increasing 4% from last marketing year mainly on higher soybean exports for the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Soybean imports are higher for China, Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Iran, and Vietnam. China’s soybean imports are rising 4 million tons to 109 million on larger global supplies and lower prices. Global 2024-‘25 soybean ending stocks are projected up 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million, with most of the increase for Brazil, Argentina, the U.S., and China.
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