USDA September Crop Report
September 1, 2002
USDA released its latest crop production report Sept. 12. It was slightly surprising, as national yield estimates increased by 0.2 bu/acre to 125.4. However, overall production was lowered 37 mb due to a reduction of ½ million harvested acres, now estimated at 70.5. This new estimate decreases 02/03 U.S. ending stocks by the same 37 mb as well, with USDA estimating an average farm price of $2.35-$2.75 per bushel. An interesting note, the USDA has Food, Seed & Industrial (FSI) demand up from 2.055 billion bushels the previous marketing year to 2.17 billion bushels projected demand in 02/03. This increased demand of 115 mb is stemmed mostly from corn being consumed by an increase in ethanol demand. In addition, consider world corn carryout. . . reduced by 2 mmt last month and reduced by 60.83 mmt and 35.44 mmt in 00/01 and 02/03 respectively.
As world and U.S. corn supplies become tight, what happens to corn prices going into next spring? The next step is see what actual yield figures are coming out of the fields across the drought stricken areas. With yield estimates slacking in the far ECB and far WCB; can the areas with ideal growing conditions alter those lacking yield figures?
As world and U.S. corn supplies become tight, what happens to corn prices going into next spring? The next step is see what actual yield figures are coming out of the fields across the drought stricken areas. With yield estimates slacking in the far ECB and far WCB; can the areas with ideal growing conditions alter those lacking yield figures?
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