USDA continues to boost their projection for higher corn use for ethanol, sweeteners and starch for the 2009-'10 marketing year, pushing it up 110 million bushels from last month's estimates. Corn use for ethanol is raised 150 million bushels reflecting the continued record pace of ethanol production and usage through March based on the latest data from the Energy Information Administration. Higher ethanol production is also supported by record production of gasoline blends with ethanol as indicated by weekly data from EIA through May and forecasts for rising gasoline demand during the summer driving season. Corn use is raised 5 million bushels each for starch and glucose/dextrose as the gradual economic recovery spurs production of these products. Offsetting those increases, feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased availability of distillers grains.
The higher use, combined with lower beginning stocks drops the projected 2010-'11 corn ending stocks 245 million bushels to 1,573 million. The season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel.
U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009-'10 are projected 135 million bushels lower. At 1,603 million bushels, this year's ending stocks would be down 70 million from 2008-'09. The projected 2009-'10 farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.65 per bushel based on prices reported to date. The 2009-'10 sorghum farm price is lowered in line with that for corn.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010-'11 are projected 5.3 million tons lower with the largest share of the decline resulting from lower expected corn carryin in the United States. Global coarse grain production for 2010-'11 is lowered 1.4 million tons as higher corn production is more than offset by reductions in barley, oats, rye, and mixed grains mostly reflecting reduced crop prospects in EU-27. Flooding in eastern Europe and dryness during April and May in France have reduced expected coarse grains yields in these regions. Global corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as a 1.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, based on higher reported area, is only partly offset by reductions for Mexico and EU-27. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico as dryness has persisted in eastern and central growing areas during May. EU-27 corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons as heavy May rains have delayed field work, reducing expected area and yields in eastern Europe.
Major global corn production changes for 2009-'10 this month include a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina, which is nearly offset by reductions for the Philippines and Brazil. Argentina production is raised on higher reported area. The Philippines production is lowered 0.8 million tons based on government reports that indicate lower harvested area and yields. Production for Brazil is lowered 0.5 million tons as the early end to central Brazil's rainy season reduces second season corn yields.
Global corn trade is raised for both 2009-'10 and 2010-'11. Higher corn trade for 2009-'10 reflects increased imports by China and Vietnam and higher exports by Argentina. Higher corn trade for 2010-'11 is based on higher expected imports by Mexico, Vietnam and the Philippines. Exports for 2010-'11 are raised for Argentina and Ukraine.
Global corn consumption is raised 4 million tons for 2010-'11, mostly reflecting higher use in the United States. Corn feeding is also raised for Ukraine and Vietnam. With reduced carryin and increased consumption, global corn ending stocks are projected down 6.9 million tons. At 147.3 million tons, stocks are up 3.9 million tons from 2009-'10, but just below those for 2008-'09.
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