Trade journal editors don’t normally offer behind-the-curtain looks at feature stories in progress, but I want to tell you about a story I am working on about the fate and future of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the United States. The February theme of Ethanol Producer Magazine is “Growing the Market,” which essentially means the issue is dedicated to stories about E15 implementation, mid-level blends and E85. Originally, I set out to do a simple—as if anything is—story about automaker positions on FFV manufacturing under regulatory pressures to produce new cars, sport utility vehicles and light trucks that achieve progressively stricter emissions and fuel economy standards. In particular, I am trying to determine what, if anything, will incentivize automakers to produce FFVs in the U.S. if and when corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) credits fade after model year 2016. I have since learned that the end of CAFE credits is not a certainty.    

The story was, and ostensibly still is, an update on the automaker FFV and E15 viewpoints we received at last year’s National Ethanol Conference in Las Vegas, where representatives of General Motors (GM), Toyota, Honda and Volkswagen Group provided—to what extent they could—overviews of their current and future positions on all things ethanol. By and large, the panel left everyone with mixed feelings. GM’s representative, restrained, could not talk in depth about the automaker’s near- or long-term FFV intentions. Toyota provided glimpses of hope with talk of “working together” to take advantage of ethanol’s potential to bring thermal efficiency improvements to downsized, turbo-charged engines. Honda’s rep, genteel yet frank, reminded us about the automaker’s concerns with E15 “misfueling” before telling us Honda will never produce FFVs in North America unless its customers start demanding them. Volkswagen’s panelist provided interesting snippets of support for higher-level ethanol blends, and the ambassador from Mercedes-Benz offered the bold idea of creating an E30 “Tier 3” fuel. It was an idea that would have probably been more rousing if it had been introduced by, or even embraced by GM, Ford or Chrysler, which produce vastly more FFVs than any other auto manufacturer.  

So what can I report? It’s too early to say, but I encourage you to read the full story in our upcoming February issue, which will be out in early-to-mid January. I can tell you that I have received interesting updates from Honda and Toyota, a gracious “pass” (along with helpful notes) from GM, and a tentative interview in the works with Volkswagen. I’m also hoping for participation from Ford and Chrysler.

Stay tuned.