EIA: July STEO maintains 2025, 2026 production forecasts for biobased diesel
July 10, 2025
BY Erin Krueger
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2025 and 2026 biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 8.
Renewable diesel production is currently expected to average 210,000 barrels per day this year, expanding to 250,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA now expects net imports of renewable diesel to average negative 20,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, compared to the July outlook of negative 10,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 30,000 barrels per day last year.
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The agency reduced its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption to 190,000 barrels per day, compared to last month’s outlook of 200,000 barrels per day. The forecast for 2026 renewable diesel consumption was maintained at 230,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Biodiesel production is currently expected to average 90,000 barrels per day this year and 100,000 barrels per day next year, unchanged when compared to the June STEO. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA maintained its forecast that net imports of biodiesel will average zero barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. Net imports were at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
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Biodiesel consumption is expected to average 90,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Biodiesel consumption was at 120,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The production of “other biofuels,” defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF, alternative jet fuel, and biojet; renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged when compared to the June STEO. The production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other biofuels” are expected to be zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from both last month’s forecast and 2024.
The EIA also maintained its forecasts that the production of “other biofuels” will average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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Calumet Inc. on Aug. 8 confirmed its Montana Renewables biorefinery is currently running at full capacity. An initial phase of the company’s MaxSAF initiative remains on track to boost SAF capacity to up to 150 MMgy by mid-2026.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. on Aug. 5 released second quarter financial results, reporting improved EBITDA for its renewable diesel segment. The company primarily attributed the improvement to increased utilization and higher margins.
Chevron Corp. on Aug. 1 confirmed the company started production at the Geismar renewable diesel plant in Louisiana during the second quarter after completing work to expand plant capacity from 7,000 to 22,000 barrels per day.
As of July 2025, California’s SCFS requires renewable fuel producers using specified source feedstocks to secure attestation letters reaching back to the point of origin. This marks a significant shift in compliance expectations.
The public comment period on the U.S. EPA’s proposed rule to set 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs and revise RFS regulations closed Aug. 8. Biofuel groups have largely expressed support for the proposal but also outlined several ways to improve the rulemaking.
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