EIA: US biodiesel production expected to increase in 2021, 2022

By Erin Voegele | January 14, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Jan. 12 released is Short-Term Energy Outlook for January, which features the agency’s first short-term predictions for 2022. The EIA currently predicts growth in biodiesel production through 2022.

The report notes that COVID-19 related reduction in economic activity in general, and decreased demand for liquid fuels in particular, had a significant effect on U.S. biofuels markets last year. The EIA said it expects this trend to persist through 2022.

EIA estimates that U.S. biodiesel production increased in 2020 and was less affected by COVID-19-related restrictions than many other fuels despite a slightly decrease in production capacity. The EIA estimates biodiesel production averaged 118,000 barrels per day in 2022, up 5 percent from 2019. Biodiesel production is expected to grow by 4 percent this year, reaching 122,000 barrels per day, and increase 6 percent in 2022 to an average of 130,000 barrels per day. The agency said the increase is expected to be largely driven by increasing Renewable Fuel Standard targets and the existence of the biodiesel production tax credit through 2022.

U.S. net imports of biomass-based diesel increased by an estimated 10 percent last year, reaching an average of 23,000 barrels per day. The EIA currently expects net imports to increase to 34,000 barrels per day this year and 47,000 barrels per day in 2022. Increased net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to be driven primarily by increased volumes of renewable diesel imported to meet the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard requirements and rising RFS targets.


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