April WASDE maintains 2023-’24 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

April 11, 2024

BY Erin Voegele

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released April 11. The forecasted price for soybean oil was also unchanged.

The current outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023-’24 includes lower imports, residual use and exports, along with higher ending stocks. 

The USDA currently expects 13 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the March WASDE. Soybean oil use for biofuel production was at 12.491 billion pounds for 2022-’23 and at 10.379 billion pounds for 2021-’22. 

The outlook for soybean trade is reduced on pace to date and expectations for future shipments. With the trade changes and slightly lower residual, soybean ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. 

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Global 2023-‘24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and nearly unchanged ending stocks. Soybean production is lowered mainly for South Africa on drought conditions during the season, which negatively impacted yield potential. Partly offsetting is higher production for Paraguay, up 200,000 tons to 10.5 million. 

Global soybean exports are lowered 500,000 tons to 173.1 million mainly on lower exports for the United States and South Africa partly offset by higher shipments for Paraguay. Imports are lowered for Indonesia, Russia, Algeria, and the United States, but raised for the EU. Global soybean ending stocks are nearly unchanged with higher stocks for the United States offset by lower stocks for Canada, Iran, and Russia.

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