USDA maintains forecast for corn use in ethanol production
June 12, 2023
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 9. The forecasts for corn area, corn yield and season-average corn prices were also unchanged.
According to the USDA, the U.S. corn outlook is little changed when compared to last month, with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. The projected area planted is unchanged at 92 million acres, with 84.1 million acres projected to be harvested. Projected yield per harvested acre is also unchanged at 181.5 bushels. The agency said its June 30 Acreage report will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022-’23 that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through April, export inspection data for May and expectations of competition from Brazil in the coming months.
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The USDA currently predicts 5.3 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the May WASDE. An estimated 5.25 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2022-’23, down from 5.326 billion bushels in 2021-’22.
With no supply or uses changes for 2023-’24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
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Globally, corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government. For 2022-’23, corn production is lowered for Argentina but raised for Brazil.
Major global trade changes for 2023-’23 include larger corn exports for Ukraine and increased imports for the EU. For 2022-’23, corn exports are lowered for Argentina and the U.S. but raised for Ukraine, Brazil and South Africa. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to last month, as increases for Paraguay and Zambia are offset by reductions for Mexico and South Africa. Global corn ending stocks, at 310 million tons, are up 1.1 million tons from last month.
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